Cazalegas 1–0 Conquense: Result & Stats

Cazalegas

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Conquense

2/4/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 19Ciudad Deportiva Ebora Formación

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Cazalegas33%

×Draw28%

Conquense39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CazalegasExpected goals in this matchConquense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.21

Cazalegas

1.08

Conquense

1.21

Conquense creates 12% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 76 away

1.29

creates per match

1.22

1.20

allows per match

0.87

creates per match

Cazalegas

1.29

Conquense

1.22

allows per match

Cazalegas

1.20

Conquense

0.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cazalegas+0.00on par

Conquense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cazalegas ↓

Conquense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Cazalegas or draw

61%

Cazalegas or Conquense

72%

Draw or Conquense

67%

Winning margin

Cazalegas wins by 2+

13%

Conquense wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Cazalegas 1+ goals

66%

Cazalegas 2+ goals

29%

Cazalegas 3+ goals

10%

Conquense 1+ goals

70%

Conquense 2+ goals

34%

Conquense 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Cazalegas (draw refunded)

46%

Conquense (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cazalegas at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.20 · 51 matches

Conquense away — creates 1.22, concedes 0.87 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cazalegas attack 1.29 + Conquense defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.08

Conquense attack 1.22 + Cazalegas defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cazalegas scores more

33%

level

28%

Conquense scores more

39%

Conquense at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Conquense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff