Cazalegas 2–0 Azuqueca: Result & Stats

Cazalegas

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Azuqueca

4/27/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 31Ciudad Deportiva Ebora Formación

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Cazalegas43%

×Draw27%

Azuqueca30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CazalegasExpected goals in this matchAzuqueca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.09

Cazalegas

1.36

Azuqueca

1.09

Cazalegas creates 25% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 112 away

1.29

creates per match

0.99

1.20

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Cazalegas

1.29

Azuqueca

0.99

allows per match

Cazalegas

1.20

Azuqueca

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cazalegas+0.00on par

Azuqueca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cazalegas ↓

Azuqueca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Cazalegas or draw

70%

Cazalegas or Azuqueca

73%

Draw or Azuqueca

57%

Winning margin

Cazalegas wins by 2+

20%

Azuqueca wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Cazalegas 1+ goals

74%

Cazalegas 2+ goals

39%

Cazalegas 3+ goals

16%

Azuqueca 1+ goals

66%

Azuqueca 2+ goals

30%

Azuqueca 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Cazalegas (draw refunded)

59%

Azuqueca (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cazalegas at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.20 · 51 matches

Azuqueca away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.43 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cazalegas attack 1.29 + Azuqueca defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.36

Azuqueca attack 0.99 + Cazalegas defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cazalegas scores more

43%

level

27%

Azuqueca scores more

30%

Cazalegas at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cazalegas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff