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Cazalegas vs Albacete II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Cazalegas
Cazalegas
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Albacete II
Albacete II
11/2/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 9Ciudad Deportiva Ebora Formación

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Cazalegas34%
×Draw27%
Albacete II39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cazalegas
1.19
Albacete II
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 96 away

creates per match

Cazalegas
1.29
Albacete II
1.38

allows per match

Cazalegas
1.20
Albacete II
1.09

finishing

Cazalegas+0.00on par
Albacete II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cazalegas ↓

Albacete II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cazalegas or draw
61%
Cazalegas or Albacete II
73%
Draw or Albacete II
66%

Winning margin

Cazalegas wins by 2+
14%
Albacete II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Cazalegas 1+ goals
70%
Cazalegas 2+ goals
33%
Cazalegas 3+ goals
12%
Albacete II 1+ goals
72%
Albacete II 2+ goals
37%
Albacete II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Cazalegas (draw refunded)
47%
Albacete II (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cazalegas at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.20 · 51 matches

Albacete II away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.09 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cazalegas attack 1.29 + Albacete II defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.19

Albacete II attack 1.38 + Cazalegas defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cazalegas scores more
34%
level
27%
Albacete II scores more
39%

Albacete II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Albacete II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cazalegas vs Albacete II

Albacete II beat Cazalegas 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on November 2, 2025.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Ebora Formación in Cazalegas.