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Cayón vs Textil Escudo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Cayón
Cayón
FT
6 – 1
HT: 4 – 0
Textil Escudo
Textil Escudo
4/22/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 30Estadio Fernando Astobiza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Cayón63%
×Draw21%
Textil Escudo16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cayón
2.04
Textil Escudo
0.93

Cayón creates 119% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 56 away

creates per match

Cayón
2.18
Textil Escudo
0.88

allows per match

Cayón
0.98
Textil Escudo
1.91

finishing

Cayón+0.00on par
Textil Escudo+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cayón ↓

Textil Escudo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Cayón or draw
84%
Cayón or Textil Escudo
79%
Draw or Textil Escudo
37%

Winning margin

Cayón wins by 2+
39%
Textil Escudo wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Cayón 1+ goals
87%
Cayón 2+ goals
60%
Cayón 3+ goals
33%
Textil Escudo 1+ goals
61%
Textil Escudo 2+ goals
24%
Textil Escudo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cayón (draw refunded)
79%
Textil Escudo (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cayón at home — creates 2.18, concedes 0.98 · 62 matches

Textil Escudo away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.91 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cayón attack 2.18 + Textil Escudo defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.04

Textil Escudo attack 0.88 + Cayón defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Cayón scores more
63%
level
21%
Textil Escudo scores more
16%

Cayón at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Cayón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Cayón 6–1 Textil Escudo

Cayón beat Textil Escudo 6-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on April 22, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Fernando Astobiza in Sarón, Santa María de Cayón.