Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cayón vs Textil Escudo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Cayón
Cayón
CANC
00:00
Textil Escudo
Textil Escudo
4/5/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 32Estadio Fernando Astobiza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Cayón69%
×Draw19%
Textil Escudo12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cayón
2.12
Textil Escudo
0.74

Cayón creates 186% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 56 away

creates per match

Cayón
2.33
Textil Escudo
0.88

allows per match

Cayón
0.60
Textil Escudo
1.91

finishing

Cayón+0.00on par
Textil Escudo+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cayón ↓

Textil Escudo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Cayón or draw
88%
Cayón or Textil Escudo
81%
Draw or Textil Escudo
31%

Winning margin

Cayón wins by 2+
44%
Textil Escudo wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Cayón 1+ goals
88%
Cayón 2+ goals
62%
Cayón 3+ goals
35%
Textil Escudo 1+ goals
52%
Textil Escudo 2+ goals
17%
Textil Escudo 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Cayón (draw refunded)
85%
Textil Escudo (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cayón at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.60 · 15 matches

Textil Escudo away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.91 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cayón attack 2.33 + Textil Escudo defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.12

Textil Escudo attack 0.88 + Cayón defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Cayón scores more
69%
level
19%
Textil Escudo scores more
12%

Cayón at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Cayón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Cayón host Textil Escudo

April 5, 2020: Cayón take on Textil Escudo in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Cayón host Textil Escudo at Estadio Fernando Astobiza.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.