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Cayón vs Selaya — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Cayón
Cayón
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Selaya
Selaya
9/22/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 6Estadio Fernando Astobiza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Cayón70%
×Draw19%
Selaya11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cayón
2.10
Selaya
0.67

Cayón creates 213% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 60 away

creates per match

Cayón
2.33
Selaya
0.73

allows per match

Cayón
0.60
Selaya
1.87

finishing

Cayón+0.00on par
Selaya+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cayón ↓

Selaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Cayón or draw
89%
Cayón or Selaya
81%
Draw or Selaya
30%

Winning margin

Cayón wins by 2+
45%
Selaya wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Cayón 1+ goals
88%
Cayón 2+ goals
62%
Cayón 3+ goals
35%
Selaya 1+ goals
49%
Selaya 2+ goals
15%
Selaya 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Cayón (draw refunded)
87%
Selaya (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cayón at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.60 · 15 matches

Selaya away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.87 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cayón attack 2.33 + Selaya defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 2.10

Selaya attack 0.73 + Cayón defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Cayón scores more
70%
level
19%
Selaya scores more
11%

Cayón at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Cayón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cayón vs Selaya

Selaya beat Cayón 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on September 22, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Fernando Astobiza in Sarón, Santa María de Cayón.