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Cayón vs Sámano — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Cayón
Cayón
CANC
00:00
Sámano
Sámano
4/26/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 35Estadio Fernando Astobiza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Cayón62%
×Draw22%
Sámano16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cayón
1.89
Sámano
0.84

Cayón creates 125% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 91 away

creates per match

Cayón
2.33
Sámano
1.09

allows per match

Cayón
0.60
Sámano
1.45

finishing

Cayón+0.00on par
Sámano+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cayón ↓

Sámano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Cayón or draw
84%
Cayón or Sámano
78%
Draw or Sámano
38%

Winning margin

Cayón wins by 2+
37%
Sámano wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Cayón 1+ goals
85%
Cayón 2+ goals
56%
Cayón 3+ goals
29%
Sámano 1+ goals
57%
Sámano 2+ goals
21%
Sámano 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Cayón (draw refunded)
79%
Sámano (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cayón at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.60 · 15 matches

Sámano away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.45 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cayón attack 2.33 + Sámano defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.89

Sámano attack 1.09 + Cayón defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Cayón scores more
62%
level
22%
Sámano scores more
16%

Cayón at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Cayón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cayón face Sámano (Tercera División RFEF - Group 3)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 returns with Cayón hosting Sámano. Match starts April 26, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Cayón host Sámano at Estadio Fernando Astobiza.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.