Cayón 3–1 Racing Santander II: Result & Stats

Cayón

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Racing Santander II

11/15/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 5Estadio Fernando Astobiza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Cayón43%

×Draw25%

Racing Santander II32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CayónExpected goals in this matchRacing Santander II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.27

Cayón

1.52

Racing Santander II

1.27

Cayón creates 20% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 27 away

2.18

creates per match

1.56

0.98

allows per match

0.85

creates per match

Cayón

2.18

Racing Santander II

1.56

allows per match

Cayón

0.98

Racing Santander II

0.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cayón+0.00on par

Racing Santander II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cayón ↓

Racing Santander II →

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Cayón or draw

68%

Cayón or Racing Santander II

75%

Draw or Racing Santander II

57%

Winning margin

Cayón wins by 2+

21%

Racing Santander II wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Cayón 1+ goals

78%

Cayón 2+ goals

45%

Cayón 3+ goals

20%

Racing Santander II 1+ goals

72%

Racing Santander II 2+ goals

36%

Racing Santander II 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Cayón (draw refunded)

58%

Racing Santander II (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cayón at home — creates 2.18, concedes 0.98 · 62 matches

Racing Santander II away — creates 1.56, concedes 0.85 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cayón attack 2.18 + Racing Santander II defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.52

Racing Santander II attack 1.56 + Cayón defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cayón scores more

43%

level

25%

Racing Santander II scores more

32%

Cayón at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cayón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cayón vs Racing Santander II

Cayón beat Racing Santander II 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on November 15, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Fernando Astobiza in Sarón, Santa María de Cayón.

Cayón vs Racing Santander II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Cayón vs Racing Santander II