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Cayón vs Laredo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Cayón
Cayón
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Laredo
Laredo
3/15/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 26Estadio Fernando Astobiza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Cayón41%
×Draw25%
Laredo34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cayón
1.48
Laredo
1.31

Cayón creates 13% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 51 away

creates per match

Cayón
2.18
Laredo
1.65

allows per match

Cayón
0.98
Laredo
0.78

finishing

Cayón+0.00on par
Laredo+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cayón ↓

Laredo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Cayón or draw
66%
Cayón or Laredo
75%
Draw or Laredo
59%

Winning margin

Cayón wins by 2+
20%
Laredo wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Cayón 1+ goals
77%
Cayón 2+ goals
43%
Cayón 3+ goals
19%
Laredo 1+ goals
73%
Laredo 2+ goals
38%
Laredo 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Cayón (draw refunded)
55%
Laredo (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cayón at home — creates 2.18, concedes 0.98 · 62 matches

Laredo away — creates 1.65, concedes 0.78 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cayón attack 2.18 + Laredo defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.48

Laredo attack 1.65 + Cayón defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Cayón scores more
41%
level
25%
Laredo scores more
34%

Cayón at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cayón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Cayón 0–2 Laredo

Laredo beat Cayón 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on March 15, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Fernando Astobiza in Sarón, Santa María de Cayón.