Cayón 1–1 Guarnizo: Result & Stats

Cayón

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Guarnizo

11/23/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 12Estadio Fernando Astobiza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Cayón51%

×Draw24%

Guarnizo25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CayónExpected goals in this matchGuarnizo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.10

Cayón

1.69

Guarnizo

1.10

Cayón creates 54% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 111 away

2.18

creates per match

1.23

0.98

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Cayón

2.18

Guarnizo

1.23

allows per match

Cayón

0.98

Guarnizo

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cayón+0.00on par

Guarnizo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cayón ↓

Guarnizo →

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Cayón or draw

75%

Cayón or Guarnizo

76%

Draw or Guarnizo

49%

Winning margin

Cayón wins by 2+

28%

Guarnizo wins by 2+

Team goals

Cayón 1+ goals

82%

Cayón 2+ goals

50%

Cayón 3+ goals

24%

Guarnizo 1+ goals

67%

Guarnizo 2+ goals

30%

Guarnizo 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Cayón (draw refunded)

67%

Guarnizo (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cayón at home — creates 2.18, concedes 0.98 · 62 matches

Guarnizo away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.20 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cayón attack 2.18 + Guarnizo defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.69

Guarnizo attack 1.23 + Cayón defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Cayón scores more

51%

level

24%

Guarnizo scores more

25%

Cayón at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Cayón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Cayón 1–1 Guarnizo

Cayón and Guarnizo drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on November 23, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Fernando Astobiza in Sarón, Santa María de Cayón.

Cayón vs Guarnizo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Cayón 1–1 Guarnizo