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Slonim vs Khimik Svetlogorsk — 1. Division 2018

Slonim
Slonim
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Khimik Svetlogorsk
Khimik Svetlogorsk
6/14/20201. Division1. Division · Round 8Stadyen Yunatstva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Slonim42%
×Draw25%
Khimik Svetlogorsk33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slonim
1.48
Khimik Svetlogorsk
1.28

Slonim creates 16% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 59 away

creates per match

Slonim
0.95
Khimik Svetlogorsk
0.92

allows per match

Slonim
1.64
Khimik Svetlogorsk
2.02

finishing

Slonim+0.00on par
Khimik Svetlogorsk+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slonim ↓

Khimik Svetlogorsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Slonim or draw
67%
Slonim or Khimik Svetlogorsk
75%
Draw or Khimik Svetlogorsk
58%

Winning margin

Slonim wins by 2+
20%
Khimik Svetlogorsk wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Slonim 1+ goals
77%
Slonim 2+ goals
43%
Slonim 3+ goals
19%
Khimik Svetlogorsk 1+ goals
72%
Khimik Svetlogorsk 2+ goals
37%
Khimik Svetlogorsk 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Slonim (draw refunded)
56%
Khimik Svetlogorsk (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slonim at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.64 · 129 matches

Khimik Svetlogorsk away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.02 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slonim attack 0.95 + Khimik Svetlogorsk defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.48

Khimik Svetlogorsk attack 0.92 + Slonim defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Slonim scores more
42%
level
25%
Khimik Svetlogorsk scores more
33%

Slonim at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Slonim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Recap: Slonim vs Khimik Svetlogorsk

Slonim beat Khimik Svetlogorsk 1-0 in 1. Division on June 14, 2020.

The match was played at Stadyen Yunatstva in Slonim.