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Caxias vs Internacional SC — Serie D 2018

Caxias
Caxias
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Internacional SC
Internacional SC
5/27/2018Serie DSerie D · Round 6Estádio Francisco Stédile (Caxias do Sul, Rio Grande do Sul)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Caxias67%
×Draw22%
Internacional SC11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caxias
1.76
Internacional SC
0.56

Caxias creates 214% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 4 away

creates per match

Caxias
1.52
Internacional SC
0.50

allows per match

Caxias
0.62
Internacional SC
2.00

finishing

Caxias+0.00on par
Internacional SC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caxias ↓

Internacional SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Caxias or draw
89%
Caxias or Internacional SC
78%
Draw or Internacional SC
33%

Winning margin

Caxias wins by 2+
39%
Internacional SC wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Caxias 1+ goals
83%
Caxias 2+ goals
52%
Caxias 3+ goals
26%
Internacional SC 1+ goals
43%
Internacional SC 2+ goals
11%
Internacional SC 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Caxias (draw refunded)
86%
Internacional SC (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caxias at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.62 · 52 matches

Internacional SC away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caxias attack 1.52 + Internacional SC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.76

Internacional SC attack 0.50 + Caxias defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Caxias scores more
67%
level
22%
Internacional SC scores more
11%

Caxias at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Caxias will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Caxias vs Internacional SC

Caxias beat Internacional SC 3-1 in Serie D on May 27, 2018.

The match was played at Estádio Francisco Stédile (Caxias do Sul, Rio Grande do Sul).