Caxias 0–1 Esportivo: Result & Stats | Serie D

Caxias

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Esportivo

8/14/2021

Serie D · Round 11Estádio Francisco Stédile

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Caxias48%

×Draw31%

Esportivo21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CaxiasExpected goals in this matchEsportivo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.65

Caxias

1.15

Esportivo

0.65

Caxias creates 77% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 9 away

1.52

creates per match

0.67

0.62

allows per match

0.78

creates per match

Caxias

1.52

Esportivo

0.67

allows per match

Caxias

0.62

Esportivo

0.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Caxias+0.00on par

Esportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caxias ↓

Esportivo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–111%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Caxias or draw

79%

Caxias or Esportivo

69%

Draw or Esportivo

52%

Winning margin

Caxias wins by 2+

21%

Esportivo wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Caxias 1+ goals

68%

Caxias 2+ goals

32%

Caxias 3+ goals

11%

Esportivo 1+ goals

48%

Esportivo 2+ goals

14%

Esportivo 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Caxias (draw refunded)

70%

Esportivo (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caxias at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.62 · 52 matches

Esportivo away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caxias attack 1.52 + Esportivo defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.15

Esportivo attack 0.67 + Caxias defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Caxias scores more

48%

level

31%

Esportivo scores more

21%

Caxias at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Caxias will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff