Caxias 3–0 Aparecidense: Result & Stats | Serie C

Caxias

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Aparecidense

Robinho 48'

Álvaro 22'

Gabriel Silva 18'

7/17/2024

Serie C · Round 13Estádio Francisco Stédile

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Caxias46%

×Draw28%

Aparecidense25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CaxiasExpected goals in this matchAparecidense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.89

Caxias

1.31

Aparecidense

0.89

Caxias creates 47% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 32 away

1.41

creates per match

0.94

0.83

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Caxias

1.41

Aparecidense

0.94

allows per match

Caxias

0.83

Aparecidense

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Caxias+0.00on par

Aparecidense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caxias ↓

Aparecidense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Caxias or draw

75%

Caxias or Aparecidense

72%

Draw or Aparecidense

54%

Winning margin

Caxias wins by 2+

22%

Aparecidense wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Caxias 1+ goals

73%

Caxias 2+ goals

38%

Caxias 3+ goals

14%

Aparecidense 1+ goals

59%

Aparecidense 2+ goals

22%

Aparecidense 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Caxias (draw refunded)

65%

Aparecidense (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caxias at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.83 · 29 matches

Aparecidense away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.22 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caxias attack 1.41 + Aparecidense defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.31

Aparecidense attack 0.94 + Caxias defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Caxias scores more

46%

level

28%

Aparecidense scores more

25%

Caxias at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Caxias will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

Gabriel Silva

22'

Álvaro

46'

Genilson← Robert

46'

Juninho← Rodrigues

48'

Robinho

49'

Luan Gonçalves

61'

Welder← Álvaro

61'

Yuri Ferraz← Robinho

73'

Peu← Tomas Bastos

73'

Wendell← Gabriel Silva

77'

Luan Sales

80'

Arthur Neves← Augusto Galván

80'

Cauari← Igor Torres

80'

Emanuel Pereira← Rhuan Silveira

85'

Wendell Fernandes da Silva

89'

Alan James← Rubens

90+2'

Elyeser

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CaxiasAparecidense

Overview

32%Possession68%

12Total Shots16

2.88Expected Goals (xG)1.68

8Corners10

17Fouls12

Shots

12Total Shots16

5On Target7

6Off Target4

1Blocked5

8Inside Box6

4Outside Box10

Passing

32%Possession68%

231Total Passes564

170Accurate Passes491

74%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

7Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls12

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1