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Caxias vs Aimoré — Serie D 2018

Caxias
Caxias
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Aimoré
Aimoré
7/8/2023Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 12Estádio Francisco Stédile

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Caxias57%
×Draw25%
Aimoré18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caxias
1.58
Aimoré
0.77

Caxias creates 105% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 22 away

creates per match

Caxias
1.52
Aimoré
0.91

allows per match

Caxias
0.62
Aimoré
1.64

finishing

Caxias+0.00on par
Aimoré+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caxias ↓

Aimoré →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Caxias or draw
82%
Caxias or Aimoré
75%
Draw or Aimoré
43%

Winning margin

Caxias wins by 2+
30%
Aimoré wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Caxias 1+ goals
79%
Caxias 2+ goals
47%
Caxias 3+ goals
21%
Aimoré 1+ goals
54%
Aimoré 2+ goals
18%
Aimoré 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Caxias (draw refunded)
76%
Aimoré (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caxias at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.62 · 52 matches

Aimoré away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.64 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caxias attack 1.52 + Aimoré defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.58

Aimoré attack 0.91 + Caxias defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Caxias scores more
57%
level
25%
Aimoré scores more
18%

Caxias at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Caxias will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D: Caxias 3–1 Aimoré

Caxias beat Aimoré 3-1 in Serie D on July 8, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Francisco Stédile in Caxias do Sul, Rio Grande do Sul.