Caxias 2–0 ABC: Result & Stats | Serie C

Caxias

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

ABC

Welder 35'

Gabriel Silva 23'

8/18/2024

Serie C · Round 18Estádio Francisco Stédile

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Caxias48%

×Draw29%

ABC23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CaxiasExpected goals in this matchABC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

0.80

Caxias

1.28

ABC

0.80

Caxias creates 60% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 53 away

1.41

creates per match

0.77

0.83

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Caxias

1.41

ABC

0.77

allows per match

Caxias

0.83

ABC

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Caxias+0.00on par

ABC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caxias ↓

ABC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Caxias or draw

77%

Caxias or ABC

71%

Draw or ABC

52%

Winning margin

Caxias wins by 2+

22%

ABC wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Caxias 1+ goals

72%

Caxias 2+ goals

37%

Caxias 3+ goals

14%

ABC 1+ goals

55%

ABC 2+ goals

19%

ABC 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Caxias (draw refunded)

67%

ABC (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caxias at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.83 · 29 matches

ABC away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.15 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caxias attack 1.41 + ABC defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.28

ABC attack 0.77 + Caxias defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Caxias scores more

48%

level

29%

ABC scores more

23%

Caxias at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Caxias will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

Gabriel Silva

35'

Welder

40'

Marcelo

46'

Gabriel Santiago← Pedro Felipe

46'

Jenison← Jackson

46'

Lima← Matheus Blade

49'

Daniel

52'

Cézar Henrique← Elyeser

60'

Tomas Bastos

67'

Geilson← Marcelo

67'

Peu← Gabriel Silva

67'

Robinho← Álvaro

71'

David Ribeiro← Adeílson Maranhão

77'

Mateus Mendes← Augusto Galván

77'

Ruan← Lucas Sampaio

Caxias5-4-1

ABC4-4-2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Thiago Gomes

52'▲Cézar Henrique←▼Elyeser

67'▲Geilson←▼Marcelo

67'▲Peu←▼Gabriel Silva

67'▲Robinho←▼Álvaro

77'▲Mateus Mendes←▼Augusto Galván

Caxias substitutes

HenriqueGeilsonPeuRobinhoMendesCarlosBarbaMandaiTontiniPierreCuiabáPeninha

Manager: Roberto Fonseca

46'▲Gabriel Santiago←▼Pedro Felipe

46'▲Jenison←▼Jackson

46'▲Lima←▼Matheus Blade

71'▲David Ribeiro←▼Adeílson Maranhão

77'▲Ruan←▼Lucas Sampaio

ABC substitutes

SantiagoJenisonLimaRibeiroRuanRefundiniGalegoCésarReisSantos

Serie C: Caxias 2–0 ABC

Caxias beat ABC 2-0 in Serie C on August 18, 2024.

Goals: Gabriel Silva (23'), Welder (35').

The match was played at Estádio Francisco Stédile in Caxias do Sul, Rio Grande do Sul.

Caxias vs ABC — Serie C 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Serie C: Caxias 2–0 ABC