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Cavese vs Romana — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Cavese
Cavese
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Romana
Romana
9/10/2023Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 1Stadio Comunale Simonetta Lamberti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Cavese44%
×Draw28%
Romana28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cavese
1.32
Romana
1.00

Cavese creates 32% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Cavese
1.71
Romana
1.24

allows per match

Cavese
0.76
Romana
0.94

finishing

Cavese+0.00on par
Romana+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cavese ↓

Romana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cavese or draw
72%
Cavese or Romana
72%
Draw or Romana
56%

Winning margin

Cavese wins by 2+
20%
Romana wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cavese 1+ goals
73%
Cavese 2+ goals
38%
Cavese 3+ goals
15%
Romana 1+ goals
63%
Romana 2+ goals
26%
Romana 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Cavese (draw refunded)
61%
Romana (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cavese at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

Romana away — creates 1.24, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cavese attack 1.71 + Romana defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.32

Romana attack 1.24 + Cavese defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Cavese scores more
44%
level
28%
Romana scores more
28%

Cavese at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cavese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Cavese 2–0 Romana

Cavese beat Romana 2-0 in Serie D - Girone G on September 10, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Simonetta Lamberti in Cava de' Tirreni.