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Cavese vs Ostia Mare — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Cavese
Cavese
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ostia Mare
Ostia Mare
3/3/2024Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 25Stadio Comunale Simonetta Lamberti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Cavese43%
×Draw26%
Ostia Mare31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cavese
1.43
Ostia Mare
1.18

Cavese creates 21% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 48 away

creates per match

Cavese
1.71
Ostia Mare
1.60

allows per match

Cavese
0.76
Ostia Mare
1.15

finishing

Cavese+0.00on par
Ostia Mare+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cavese ↓

Ostia Mare →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Cavese or draw
69%
Cavese or Ostia Mare
74%
Draw or Ostia Mare
57%

Winning margin

Cavese wins by 2+
20%
Ostia Mare wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Cavese 1+ goals
76%
Cavese 2+ goals
42%
Cavese 3+ goals
17%
Ostia Mare 1+ goals
69%
Ostia Mare 2+ goals
33%
Ostia Mare 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Cavese (draw refunded)
58%
Ostia Mare (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cavese at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

Ostia Mare away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.15 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cavese attack 1.71 + Ostia Mare defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.43

Ostia Mare attack 1.60 + Cavese defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cavese scores more
43%
level
26%
Ostia Mare scores more
31%

Cavese at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cavese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Cavese 1–0 Ostia Mare

Cavese beat Ostia Mare 1-0 in Serie D - Girone G on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Simonetta Lamberti in Cava de' Tirreni.