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Cavaliers vs Tonnerre — Championnat National 2019

Cavaliers
Cavaliers
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tonnerre
Tonnerre
11/3/2024Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Group A - 6Football Stadium Nikki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Cavaliers43%
×Draw31%
Tonnerre26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cavaliers
1.12
Tonnerre
0.81

Cavaliers creates 38% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 83 away

creates per match

Cavaliers
1.13
Tonnerre
0.81

allows per match

Cavaliers
0.82
Tonnerre
1.11

finishing

Cavaliers+0.00on par
Tonnerre+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cavaliers ↓

Tonnerre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Cavaliers or draw
74%
Cavaliers or Tonnerre
69%
Draw or Tonnerre
57%

Winning margin

Cavaliers wins by 2+
18%
Tonnerre wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cavaliers 1+ goals
67%
Cavaliers 2+ goals
31%
Cavaliers 3+ goals
10%
Tonnerre 1+ goals
56%
Tonnerre 2+ goals
19%
Tonnerre 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Cavaliers (draw refunded)
62%
Tonnerre (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cavaliers at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.82 · 107 matches

Tonnerre away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.11 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cavaliers attack 1.13 + Tonnerre defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.12

Tonnerre attack 0.81 + Cavaliers defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cavaliers scores more
43%
level
31%
Tonnerre scores more
26%

Cavaliers at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cavaliers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: Cavaliers 1–0 Tonnerre

Cavaliers beat Tonnerre 1-0 in Championnat National on November 3, 2024.

The match was played at Football Stadium Nikki in Nikki.