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Cavaliers vs Tanéka — Championnat National 2019

Cavaliers
Cavaliers
FT
0 – 1
Tanéka
Tanéka
2/4/2021Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 2Stade Tchaourou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Cavaliers48%
×Draw32%
Tanéka20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cavaliers
1.10
Tanéka
0.60

Cavaliers creates 83% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 13 away

creates per match

Cavaliers
1.13
Tanéka
0.38

allows per match

Cavaliers
0.82
Tanéka
1.08

finishing

Cavaliers+0.00on par
Tanéka+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Under
  • Under76
  • Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cavaliers ↓

Tanéka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–111%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
24%76%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Cavaliers or draw
80%
Cavaliers or Tanéka
68%
Draw or Tanéka
52%

Winning margin

Cavaliers wins by 2+
20%
Tanéka wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Cavaliers 1+ goals
67%
Cavaliers 2+ goals
30%
Cavaliers 3+ goals
10%
Tanéka 1+ goals
45%
Tanéka 2+ goals
12%
Tanéka 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Cavaliers (draw refunded)
70%
Tanéka (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cavaliers at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.82 · 107 matches

Tanéka away — creates 0.38, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cavaliers attack 1.13 + Tanéka defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.10

Tanéka attack 0.38 + Cavaliers defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Cavaliers scores more
48%
level
32%
Tanéka scores more
20%

Cavaliers at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Cavaliers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cavaliers vs Tanéka

Tanéka beat Cavaliers 1-0 in Championnat National on February 4, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Tchaourou in Tchaourou.