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Cavaliers vs JSP — Championnat National 2019

Cavaliers
Cavaliers
FT
2 – 1
JSP
JSP
6/12/2024Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Championship Round - 21Football Stadium Nikki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

Cavaliers47%
×Draw29%
JSP24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cavaliers
1.25
JSP
0.81

Cavaliers creates 54% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 107 away

creates per match

Cavaliers
1.13
JSP
0.80

allows per match

Cavaliers
0.82
JSP
1.37

finishing

Cavaliers+0.00on par
JSP+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cavaliers ↓

JSP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Cavaliers or draw
76%
Cavaliers or JSP
71%
Draw or JSP
53%

Winning margin

Cavaliers wins by 2+
21%
JSP wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cavaliers 1+ goals
71%
Cavaliers 2+ goals
36%
Cavaliers 3+ goals
13%
JSP 1+ goals
56%
JSP 2+ goals
19%
JSP 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Cavaliers (draw refunded)
66%
JSP (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cavaliers at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.82 · 107 matches

JSP away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.37 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cavaliers attack 1.13 + JSP defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.25

JSP attack 0.80 + Cavaliers defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Cavaliers scores more
47%
level
29%
JSP scores more
24%

Cavaliers at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Cavaliers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cavaliers vs JSP

Cavaliers beat JSP 2-1 in Championnat National on June 12, 2024.

The match was played at Football Stadium Nikki in Nikki.