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Cavalier vs UWI — Premier League 2019

Cavalier
Cavalier
CANC
18:00
UWI
UWI
7/24/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Cavalier57%
×Draw24%
UWI19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cavalier
1.73
UWI
0.88

Cavalier creates 97% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 14 away

creates per match

Cavalier
1.66
UWI
0.79

allows per match

Cavalier
0.96
UWI
1.79

finishing

Cavalier+0.00on par
UWI+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cavalier ↓

UWI →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Cavalier or draw
81%
Cavalier or UWI
76%
Draw or UWI
43%

Winning margin

Cavalier wins by 2+
32%
UWI wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Cavalier 1+ goals
82%
Cavalier 2+ goals
52%
Cavalier 3+ goals
25%
UWI 1+ goals
59%
UWI 2+ goals
22%
UWI 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Cavalier (draw refunded)
75%
UWI (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cavalier at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.96 · 101 matches

UWI away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cavalier attack 1.66 + UWI defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.73

UWI attack 0.79 + Cavalier defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Cavalier scores more
57%
level
24%
UWI scores more
19%

Cavalier at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Cavalier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cavalier face UWI (Premier League)

Premier League returns with Cavalier hosting UWI. Match starts July 24, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.