Cavalier 1–0 Treasure Beach: Result & Stats

Cavalier

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Treasure Beach

12/27/2023

Premier League · Round 11Sabina Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Cavalier52%

×Draw26%

Treasure Beach22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CavalierExpected goals in this matchTreasure Beach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

0.92

Cavalier

1.55

Treasure Beach

0.92

Cavalier creates 68% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 31 away

1.66

creates per match

0.87

0.96

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Cavalier

1.66

Treasure Beach

0.87

allows per match

Cavalier

0.96

Treasure Beach

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cavalier+0.00on par

Treasure Beach+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cavalier ↓

Treasure Beach →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Cavalier or draw

78%

Cavalier or Treasure Beach

74%

Draw or Treasure Beach

48%

Winning margin

Cavalier wins by 2+

27%

Treasure Beach wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Cavalier 1+ goals

79%

Cavalier 2+ goals

46%

Cavalier 3+ goals

20%

Treasure Beach 1+ goals

60%

Treasure Beach 2+ goals

23%

Treasure Beach 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Cavalier (draw refunded)

70%

Treasure Beach (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cavalier at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.96 · 101 matches

Treasure Beach away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.45 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cavalier attack 1.66 + Treasure Beach defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.55

Treasure Beach attack 0.87 + Cavalier defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Cavalier scores more

52%

level

26%

Treasure Beach scores more

22%

Cavalier at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Cavalier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff