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Cavalier vs Harbour View — Premier League 2019

Cavalier
Cavalier
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Harbour View
Harbour View
5/6/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 39Stadium East

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Cavalier51%
×Draw25%
Harbour View24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cavalier
1.59
Harbour View
0.99

Cavalier creates 61% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 98 away

creates per match

Cavalier
1.66
Harbour View
1.02

allows per match

Cavalier
0.96
Harbour View
1.52

finishing

Cavalier+0.00on par
Harbour View+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cavalier ↓

Harbour View →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Cavalier or draw
76%
Cavalier or Harbour View
75%
Draw or Harbour View
49%

Winning margin

Cavalier wins by 2+
27%
Harbour View wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cavalier 1+ goals
80%
Cavalier 2+ goals
47%
Cavalier 3+ goals
21%
Harbour View 1+ goals
63%
Harbour View 2+ goals
26%
Harbour View 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Cavalier (draw refunded)
68%
Harbour View (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cavalier at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.96 · 101 matches

Harbour View away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.52 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cavalier attack 1.66 + Harbour View defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.59

Harbour View attack 1.02 + Cavalier defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Cavalier scores more
51%
level
25%
Harbour View scores more
24%

Cavalier at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Cavalier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Cavalier 2–1 Harbour View

Cavalier beat Harbour View 2-1 in Premier League on May 6, 2026.

The match was played at Stadium East in Kingston.