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Cavalier vs Dunbeholden — Premier League 2019

Cavalier
Cavalier
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dunbeholden
Dunbeholden
3/16/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 30Anthony Spaulding Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Cavalier50%
×Draw26%
Dunbeholden25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cavalier
1.52
Dunbeholden
0.99

Cavalier creates 54% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 101 away

creates per match

Cavalier
1.66
Dunbeholden
1.02

allows per match

Cavalier
0.96
Dunbeholden
1.37

finishing

Cavalier+0.00on par
Dunbeholden+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cavalier ↓

Dunbeholden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cavalier or draw
75%
Cavalier or Dunbeholden
74%
Draw or Dunbeholden
50%

Winning margin

Cavalier wins by 2+
25%
Dunbeholden wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Cavalier 1+ goals
78%
Cavalier 2+ goals
45%
Cavalier 3+ goals
20%
Dunbeholden 1+ goals
63%
Dunbeholden 2+ goals
26%
Dunbeholden 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Cavalier (draw refunded)
67%
Dunbeholden (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cavalier at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.96 · 101 matches

Dunbeholden away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.37 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cavalier attack 1.66 + Dunbeholden defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.52

Dunbeholden attack 1.02 + Cavalier defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Cavalier scores more
50%
level
26%
Dunbeholden scores more
25%

Cavalier at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Cavalier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Cavalier 1–0 Dunbeholden

Cavalier beat Dunbeholden 1-0 in Premier League on March 16, 2025.

The match was played at Anthony Spaulding Sports Complex in Kingston.