Cavalier 1–1 Arnett Gardens: Result & Stats

Cavalier

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Arnett Gardens

5/15/2025

Premier League · Semi-finalsCatherine Hall Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Cavalier39%

×Draw26%

Arnett Gardens35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CavalierExpected goals in this matchArnett Gardens

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.33

Cavalier

1.42

Arnett Gardens

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 101 home / 103 away

1.66

creates per match

1.71

0.96

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Cavalier

1.66

Arnett Gardens

1.71

allows per match

Cavalier

0.96

Arnett Gardens

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cavalier+0.00on par

Arnett Gardens+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cavalier ↓

Arnett Gardens →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Cavalier or draw

65%

Cavalier or Arnett Gardens

74%

Draw or Arnett Gardens

61%

Winning margin

Cavalier wins by 2+

18%

Arnett Gardens wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Cavalier 1+ goals

76%

Cavalier 2+ goals

41%

Cavalier 3+ goals

17%

Arnett Gardens 1+ goals

74%

Arnett Gardens 2+ goals

38%

Arnett Gardens 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Cavalier (draw refunded)

53%

Arnett Gardens (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cavalier at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.96 · 101 matches

Arnett Gardens away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.19 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cavalier attack 1.66 + Arnett Gardens defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.42

Arnett Gardens attack 1.71 + Cavalier defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cavalier scores more

39%

level

26%

Arnett Gardens scores more

35%

Cavalier at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cavalier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff