Caudal 3–0 Valdesoto: Result & Stats

Caudal

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Valdesoto

2/26/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 22Estadio Municipal Hermanos Antuña

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Caudal67%

×Draw21%

Valdesoto12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CaudalExpected goals in this matchValdesoto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

0.66

Caudal

1.91

Valdesoto

0.66

Caudal creates 189% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 29 away

1.82

creates per match

0.52

0.79

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Caudal

1.82

Valdesoto

0.52

allows per match

Caudal

0.79

Valdesoto

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Caudal+0.00on par

Valdesoto+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caudal ↓

Valdesoto →

0–08%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–015%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Caudal or draw

88%

Caudal or Valdesoto

79%

Draw or Valdesoto

33%

Winning margin

Caudal wins by 2+

41%

Valdesoto wins by 2+

Team goals

Caudal 1+ goals

85%

Caudal 2+ goals

57%

Caudal 3+ goals

30%

Valdesoto 1+ goals

48%

Valdesoto 2+ goals

14%

Valdesoto 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Caudal (draw refunded)

85%

Valdesoto (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Caudal at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.79 · 114 matches

Valdesoto away — creates 0.52, concedes 2.00 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Caudal attack 1.82 + Valdesoto defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.91

Valdesoto attack 0.52 + Caudal defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 67%?"

Caudal scores more

67%

level

21%

Valdesoto scores more

12%

Caudal at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Caudal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff