Caudal 2–0 Colunga: Result & Stats

Caudal

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Colunga

Sergio Ríos 47'

Diego Boza 38'

12/22/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 16Estadio Municipal Hermanos Antuña

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 113+ matches

Caudal53%

×Draw25%

Colunga22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CaudalExpected goals in this matchColunga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.92

Caudal

1.58

Colunga

0.92

Caudal creates 72% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 113 away

1.82

creates per match

1.04

0.79

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Caudal

1.82

Colunga

1.04

allows per match

Caudal

0.79

Colunga

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Caudal+0.00on par

Colunga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caudal ↓

Colunga →

0–08%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Caudal or draw

78%

Caudal or Colunga

75%

Draw or Colunga

47%

Winning margin

Caudal wins by 2+

28%

Colunga wins by 2+

Team goals

Caudal 1+ goals

79%

Caudal 2+ goals

47%

Caudal 3+ goals

21%

Colunga 1+ goals

60%

Colunga 2+ goals

23%

Colunga 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Caudal (draw refunded)

71%

Colunga (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Caudal at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.79 · 114 matches

Colunga away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.34 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Caudal attack 1.82 + Colunga defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.58

Colunga attack 1.04 + Caudal defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

Caudal scores more

53%

level

25%

Colunga scores more

22%

Caudal at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Caudal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Abel Fernández← Victor Valero

38'

Diego Boza

47'

Sergio Ríos

55'

Robert Martínez← David Moreno

55'

José Naya← Kelvin Gbormittah

63'

Yabsira← David Ferrari

65'

Diego Montequín← M. Leyva

73'

Nico Arce← Sergio Ríos

73'

I. Velardi← Diego Boza

89'

Manuel Casariego← Kike Fanjul

Caudal

Colunga

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Ríos

Trabanco

⚽

▼

Boza

Manager: Adrián González

65'▲Diego Montequín←▼M. Leyva

73'▲Nico Arce←▼Sergio Ríos

73'▲I. Velardi←▼Diego Boza

89'▲Manuel Casariego←▼Kike Fanjul

Caudal substitutes

MontequínArceVelardiCasariego

Manager: Pablo Pantiga

7'▲Abel Fernández←▼Victor Valero

55'▲Robert Martínez←▼David Moreno

55'▲José Naya←▼Kelvin Gbormittah

63'▲Yabsira←▼David Ferrari

Colunga substitutes

FernándezMartínezNayaYabsira

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Caudal 2–0 Colunga

Caudal beat Colunga 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on December 22, 2024.

Goals: Diego Boza (38'), Sergio Ríos (47').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Hermanos Antuña in Mieres del Camino.

Caudal vs Colunga — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Caudal 2–0 Colunga