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Caudal vs Barcia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Caudal
Caudal
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Barcia
Barcia
3/27/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 27Estadio Municipal Hermanos Antuña

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Caudal67%
×Draw21%
Barcia13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caudal
1.97
Barcia
0.72

Caudal creates 174% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 17 away

creates per match

Caudal
1.82
Barcia
0.65

allows per match

Caudal
0.79
Barcia
2.12

finishing

Caudal+0.00on par
Barcia+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caudal ↓

Barcia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Caudal or draw
87%
Caudal or Barcia
79%
Draw or Barcia
33%

Winning margin

Caudal wins by 2+
41%
Barcia wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Caudal 1+ goals
86%
Caudal 2+ goals
58%
Caudal 3+ goals
31%
Barcia 1+ goals
51%
Barcia 2+ goals
16%
Barcia 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Caudal (draw refunded)
84%
Barcia (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caudal at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.79 · 114 matches

Barcia away — creates 0.65, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caudal attack 1.82 + Barcia defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.97

Barcia attack 0.65 + Caudal defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Caudal scores more
67%
level
21%
Barcia scores more
13%

Caudal at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Caudal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Caudal 2 – 2 Barcia

Caudal and Barcia drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 27, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Hermanos Antuña in Mieres del Camino.