Catuense U20 0–1 Ypiranga BA U20: Result & Stats

Catuense U20

FT

0 – 1

Ypiranga BA U20

4/27/2024

Baiano U20 · 1st Phase - 10Estádio Antônio de Figueiredo Carneiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Catuense U2032%

×Draw24%

Ypiranga BA U2044%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Catuense U20Expected goals in this matchYpiranga BA U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.66

Catuense U20

1.40

Ypiranga BA U20

1.66

Ypiranga BA U20 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

1.08

creates per match

0.86

2.46

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Catuense U20

1.08

Ypiranga BA U20

0.86

allows per match

Catuense U20

2.46

Ypiranga BA U20

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Catuense U20+0.00on par

Ypiranga BA U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Catuense U20 ↓

Ypiranga BA U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Catuense U20 or draw

56%

Catuense U20 or Ypiranga BA U20

76%

Draw or Ypiranga BA U20

68%

Winning margin

Catuense U20 wins by 2+

15%

Ypiranga BA U20 wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Catuense U20 1+ goals

75%

Catuense U20 2+ goals

41%

Catuense U20 3+ goals

17%

Ypiranga BA U20 1+ goals

81%

Ypiranga BA U20 2+ goals

49%

Ypiranga BA U20 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Catuense U20 (draw refunded)

43%

Ypiranga BA U20 (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Catuense U20 at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.46 · 13 matches

Ypiranga BA U20 away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Catuense U20 attack 1.08 + Ypiranga BA U20 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.40

Ypiranga BA U20 attack 0.86 + Catuense U20 defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Catuense U20 scores more

32%

level

24%

Ypiranga BA U20 scores more

44%

Ypiranga BA U20 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ypiranga BA U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff