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Cattolica vs San Martino Speme — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Cattolica
Cattolica
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
San Martino Speme
San Martino Speme
K. Balde 57'
4/27/2022Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 31Stadio Giorgio Calbi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Cattolica40%
×Draw26%
San Martino Speme34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cattolica
1.39
San Martino Speme
1.26

Cattolica creates 10% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Cattolica
0.65
San Martino Speme
0.82

allows per match

Cattolica
1.71
San Martino Speme
2.12

finishing

Cattolica+0.00on par
San Martino Speme+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cattolica ↓

San Martino Speme →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Cattolica or draw
66%
Cattolica or San Martino Speme
74%
Draw or San Martino Speme
60%

Winning margin

Cattolica wins by 2+
19%
San Martino Speme wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Cattolica 1+ goals
75%
Cattolica 2+ goals
40%
Cattolica 3+ goals
16%
San Martino Speme 1+ goals
72%
San Martino Speme 2+ goals
36%
San Martino Speme 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Cattolica (draw refunded)
54%
San Martino Speme (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cattolica at home — creates 0.65, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

San Martino Speme away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cattolica attack 0.65 + San Martino Speme defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.39

San Martino Speme attack 0.82 + Cattolica defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cattolica scores more
40%
level
26%
San Martino Speme scores more
34%

Cattolica at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cattolica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

57'
K. Balde

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Cattolica 0–1 San Martino Speme

San Martino Speme beat Cattolica 1-0 in Serie D - Girone C on April 27, 2022.

Goals: K. Balde (57').

The match was played at Stadio Giorgio Calbi in Cattolica.