Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cattolica vs Este — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Cattolica
Cattolica
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Este
Este
M. Traini 75'
Dani Espinar 45+2'
12/8/2021Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 13Stadio Giorgio Calbi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Cattolica26%
×Draw27%
Este47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cattolica
0.95
Este
1.40

Este creates 47% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 102 away

creates per match

Cattolica
0.65
Este
1.09

allows per match

Cattolica
1.71
Este
1.24

finishing

Cattolica+0.00on par
Este+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cattolica ↓

Este →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cattolica or draw
53%
Cattolica or Este
73%
Draw or Este
74%

Winning margin

Cattolica wins by 2+
9%
Este wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Cattolica 1+ goals
61%
Cattolica 2+ goals
25%
Cattolica 3+ goals
7%
Este 1+ goals
75%
Este 2+ goals
41%
Este 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Cattolica (draw refunded)
35%
Este (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cattolica at home — creates 0.65, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Este away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.24 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cattolica attack 0.65 + Este defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 0.95

Este attack 1.09 + Cattolica defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Cattolica scores more
26%
level
27%
Este scores more
47%

Este at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Este will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+2'
Dani Espinar
75'
M. Traini

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Cattolica 1–1 Este

Cattolica and Este drew 1-1 in Serie D - Girone C on December 8, 2021.

Goals: Dani Espinar (45+2'), M. Traini (75').

The match was played at Stadio Giorgio Calbi in Cattolica.