Cattolica 0–1 Delta Porto Tolle: Result & Stats

Cattolica

FT

0 – 1

Delta Porto Tolle

D. Proch 50'

10/24/2021

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 6Stadio Giorgio Calbi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Cattolica27%

×Draw27%

Delta Porto Tolle46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CattolicaExpected goals in this matchDelta Porto Tolle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

1.42

Cattolica

1.01

Delta Porto Tolle

1.42

Delta Porto Tolle creates 41% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 30 away

0.65

creates per match

1.13

1.71

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Cattolica

0.65

Delta Porto Tolle

1.13

allows per match

Cattolica

1.71

Delta Porto Tolle

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cattolica+0.00on par

Delta Porto Tolle+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cattolica ↓

Delta Porto Tolle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Cattolica or draw

54%

Cattolica or Delta Porto Tolle

73%

Draw or Delta Porto Tolle

73%

Winning margin

Cattolica wins by 2+

10%

Delta Porto Tolle wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Cattolica 1+ goals

64%

Cattolica 2+ goals

27%

Cattolica 3+ goals

8%

Delta Porto Tolle 1+ goals

76%

Delta Porto Tolle 2+ goals

41%

Delta Porto Tolle 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Cattolica (draw refunded)

37%

Delta Porto Tolle (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cattolica at home — creates 0.65, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Delta Porto Tolle away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.37 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cattolica attack 0.65 + Delta Porto Tolle defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.01

Delta Porto Tolle attack 1.13 + Cattolica defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Cattolica scores more

27%

level

27%

Delta Porto Tolle scores more

46%

Delta Porto Tolle at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Delta Porto Tolle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

50'

D. Proch

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff