Cattolica 1–0 Cjarlins Muzane: Result & Stats

Cattolica

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cjarlins Muzane

L. Rabbeni 62'

2/27/2022

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 22Stadio Giorgio Calbi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Cattolica25%

×Draw27%

Cjarlins Muzane48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CattolicaExpected goals in this matchCjarlins Muzane

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

1.43

Cattolica

0.94

Cjarlins Muzane

1.43

Cjarlins Muzane creates 52% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 101 away

0.65

creates per match

1.15

1.71

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Cattolica

0.65

Cjarlins Muzane

1.15

allows per match

Cattolica

1.71

Cjarlins Muzane

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cattolica+0.00on par

Cjarlins Muzane+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cattolica ↓

Cjarlins Muzane →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–113%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Cattolica or draw

52%

Cattolica or Cjarlins Muzane

73%

Draw or Cjarlins Muzane

75%

Winning margin

Cattolica wins by 2+

9%

Cjarlins Muzane wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Cattolica 1+ goals

61%

Cattolica 2+ goals

24%

Cattolica 3+ goals

7%

Cjarlins Muzane 1+ goals

76%

Cjarlins Muzane 2+ goals

42%

Cjarlins Muzane 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Cattolica (draw refunded)

34%

Cjarlins Muzane (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cattolica at home — creates 0.65, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Cjarlins Muzane away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.23 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cattolica attack 0.65 + Cjarlins Muzane defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.94

Cjarlins Muzane attack 1.15 + Cattolica defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Cattolica scores more

25%

level

27%

Cjarlins Muzane scores more

48%

Cjarlins Muzane at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Cjarlins Muzane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

62'

L. Rabbeni

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff