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Cattolica vs Cartigliano — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Cattolica
Cattolica
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Cartigliano
Cartigliano
M. Miniati 42'
Unknown 6' (OG)
1/30/2022Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 18Stadio Giorgio Calbi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Cattolica24%
×Draw25%
Cartigliano50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cattolica
1.01
Cartigliano
1.57

Cartigliano creates 55% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 49 away

creates per match

Cattolica
0.65
Cartigliano
1.43

allows per match

Cattolica
1.71
Cartigliano
1.37

finishing

Cattolica+0.00on par
Cartigliano+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cattolica ↓

Cartigliano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Cattolica or draw
50%
Cattolica or Cartigliano
75%
Draw or Cartigliano
76%

Winning margin

Cattolica wins by 2+
9%
Cartigliano wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Cattolica 1+ goals
64%
Cattolica 2+ goals
27%
Cattolica 3+ goals
8%
Cartigliano 1+ goals
79%
Cartigliano 2+ goals
46%
Cartigliano 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Cattolica (draw refunded)
33%
Cartigliano (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cattolica at home — creates 0.65, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Cartigliano away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.37 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cattolica attack 0.65 + Cartigliano defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.01

Cartigliano attack 1.43 + Cattolica defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Cattolica scores more
24%
level
25%
Cartigliano scores more
50%

Cartigliano at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Cartigliano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
Own goal
42'
M. Miniati
49'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Cattolica 0–2 Cartigliano

Cartigliano beat Cattolica 2-0 in Serie D - Girone C on January 30, 2022.

Goals: ? (6' o.g.), M. Miniati (42').

The match was played at Stadio Giorgio Calbi in Cattolica.