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Catanzaro vs Virtus Entella — Serie B 2018

Catanzaro
Catanzaro
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Virtus Entella
Virtus Entella
11/29/2025Serie BSerie B · Round 14Stadio Nicola Ceravolo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Catanzaro48%
×Draw26%
Virtus Entella26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Catanzaro
1.48
Virtus Entella
1.00

Catanzaro creates 48% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

creates per match

Catanzaro
1.59
Virtus Entella
0.86

allows per match

Catanzaro
1.15
Virtus Entella
1.38

finishing

Catanzaro+0.49scores more
Virtus Entella-0.50scores less

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Catanzaro ↓

Virtus Entella →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Catanzaro or draw
74%
Catanzaro or Virtus Entella
74%
Draw or Virtus Entella
52%

Winning margin

Catanzaro wins by 2+
24%
Virtus Entella wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Catanzaro 1+ goals
77%
Catanzaro 2+ goals
43%
Catanzaro 3+ goals
19%
Virtus Entella 1+ goals
63%
Virtus Entella 2+ goals
26%
Virtus Entella 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Catanzaro (draw refunded)
65%
Virtus Entella (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Catanzaro at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.15 · 12 matches

Virtus Entella away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.38 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Catanzaro attack 1.59 + Virtus Entella defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.48

Virtus Entella attack 0.86 + Catanzaro defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Catanzaro scores more
48%
level
26%
Virtus Entella scores more
26%

Catanzaro at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Catanzaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Catanzaro vs Virtus Entella

Catanzaro beat Virtus Entella 3-2 in Serie B on November 29, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio Nicola Ceravolo in Catanzaro.