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Catanzaro vs Sudtirol — Serie B 2018

Catanzaro
Catanzaro
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sudtirol
Sudtirol
8/24/2025Serie BSerie B · Round 1Stadio Nicola Ceravolo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Catanzaro45%
×Draw26%
Sudtirol29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Catanzaro
1.50
Sudtirol
1.16

Catanzaro creates 29% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 78 away

creates per match

Catanzaro
1.71
Sudtirol
1.08

allows per match

Catanzaro
1.24
Sudtirol
1.29

finishing

Catanzaro+0.00on par
Sudtirol+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Catanzaro ↓

Sudtirol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Catanzaro or draw
71%
Catanzaro or Sudtirol
74%
Draw or Sudtirol
55%

Winning margin

Catanzaro wins by 2+
22%
Sudtirol wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Catanzaro 1+ goals
78%
Catanzaro 2+ goals
44%
Catanzaro 3+ goals
19%
Sudtirol 1+ goals
69%
Sudtirol 2+ goals
32%
Sudtirol 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Catanzaro (draw refunded)
61%
Sudtirol (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Catanzaro at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.24 · 63 matches

Sudtirol away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.29 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Catanzaro attack 1.71 + Sudtirol defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.50

Sudtirol attack 1.08 + Catanzaro defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Catanzaro scores more
45%
level
26%
Sudtirol scores more
29%

Catanzaro at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Catanzaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Catanzaro 1–1 Sudtirol

Catanzaro and Sudtirol drew 1-1 in Serie B on August 24, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio Nicola Ceravolo in Catanzaro.