Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Catanzaro vs Sampdoria — Serie B 2018

Catanzaro
Catanzaro
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Sampdoria
Sampdoria
5/10/2024Serie BSerie B · Round 38Stadio Nicola Ceravolo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Catanzaro47%
×Draw25%
Sampdoria28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Catanzaro
1.62
Sampdoria
1.19

Catanzaro creates 36% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 58 away

creates per match

Catanzaro
1.71
Sampdoria
1.14

allows per match

Catanzaro
1.24
Sampdoria
1.53

finishing

Catanzaro+0.00on par
Sampdoria+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Catanzaro ↓

Sampdoria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Catanzaro or draw
72%
Catanzaro or Sampdoria
75%
Draw or Sampdoria
53%

Winning margin

Catanzaro wins by 2+
25%
Sampdoria wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Catanzaro 1+ goals
80%
Catanzaro 2+ goals
48%
Catanzaro 3+ goals
22%
Sampdoria 1+ goals
70%
Sampdoria 2+ goals
33%
Sampdoria 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Catanzaro (draw refunded)
63%
Sampdoria (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Catanzaro at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.24 · 63 matches

Sampdoria away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.53 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Catanzaro attack 1.71 + Sampdoria defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.62

Sampdoria attack 1.14 + Catanzaro defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Catanzaro scores more
47%
level
25%
Sampdoria scores more
28%

Catanzaro at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Catanzaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Catanzaro 1–3 Sampdoria

Sampdoria beat Catanzaro 3-1 in Serie B on May 10, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Nicola Ceravolo in Catanzaro.