Catanzaro 3–2 Empoli: Result & Stats | Serie B

Catanzaro

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Empoli

T. Cassandro 73'

F. Pittarello 63', 56'

M. Nasti 15'

S. Elia 1'

3/8/2026

Serie B · Round 29Stadio Nicola Ceravolo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Catanzaro46%

×Draw25%

Empoli29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CatanzaroExpected goals in this matchEmpoli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.21

Catanzaro

1.60

Empoli

1.21

Catanzaro creates 32% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 13 away

1.57

creates per match

1.27

1.15

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Catanzaro

1.57

Empoli

1.27

allows per match

Catanzaro

1.15

Empoli

1.64

+0.52scores more than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Catanzaro+0.52scores more

Empoli-0.12scores less

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Catanzaro ↓

Empoli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Catanzaro or draw

71%

Catanzaro or Empoli

75%

Draw or Empoli

54%

Winning margin

Catanzaro wins by 2+

24%

Empoli wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Catanzaro 1+ goals

80%

Catanzaro 2+ goals

47%

Catanzaro 3+ goals

22%

Empoli 1+ goals

70%

Empoli 2+ goals

34%

Empoli 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Catanzaro (draw refunded)

62%

Empoli (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Catanzaro at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.15 · 11 matches

Empoli away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.64 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Catanzaro attack 1.57 + Empoli defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.60

Empoli attack 1.27 + Catanzaro defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Catanzaro scores more

46%

level

25%

Empoli scores more

29%

Catanzaro at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Catanzaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

F. Pittarello

Catanzaro · F

9.5

Match Events

1'

S. Elia↳ M. Curto

15'

M. Nasti↳ L. Magnino

17'

Gerard Yepes

24'

Luca Magnino

46'

G. Alesi← M. D'Alessandro

46'

N. Haas← G. Yepes

46'

A. Candela← S. Elia

56'

F. Pittarello

58'

L. Ignacchiti← R. Ilie

63'

F. Pittarello↳ P. Iemmello

66'

D. Fila← E. Saporiti

72'

P. Nuamah← M. Liberali

73'

T. Cassandro↳ F. Pittarello

84'

M. Pompetti← S. Pontisso

84'

R. Frosinini← P. Iemmello

84'

F. Bianchi← M. Curto

86'

Matias Antonini

90+1'

N. Koffi← F. Pittarello

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CatanzaroEmpoli

Overview

64%Possession36%

16Total Shots5

1.95Expected Goals (xG)0.78

9Corners1

9Fouls26

Shots

16Total Shots5

6On Target2

6Off Target2

4Blocked1

10Inside Box3

6Outside Box2

Passing

64%Possession36%

555Total Passes322

497Accurate Passes242

90%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

-0.95Goals Prevented-0.95

Discipline

9Fouls26

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0