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Catanzaro vs Cittadella — Serie B 2018

Catanzaro
Catanzaro
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cittadella
Cittadella
2/14/2025Serie BSerie B · Round 26Stadio Nicola Ceravolo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Catanzaro46%
×Draw26%
Cittadella28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Catanzaro
1.45
Cittadella
1.08

Catanzaro creates 34% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 134 away

creates per match

Catanzaro
1.71
Cittadella
0.92

allows per match

Catanzaro
1.24
Cittadella
1.19

finishing

Catanzaro+0.00on par
Cittadella+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Catanzaro ↓

Cittadella →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Catanzaro or draw
72%
Catanzaro or Cittadella
74%
Draw or Cittadella
54%

Winning margin

Catanzaro wins by 2+
22%
Cittadella wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Catanzaro 1+ goals
77%
Catanzaro 2+ goals
42%
Catanzaro 3+ goals
18%
Cittadella 1+ goals
66%
Cittadella 2+ goals
29%
Cittadella 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Catanzaro (draw refunded)
62%
Cittadella (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Catanzaro at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.24 · 63 matches

Cittadella away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.19 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Catanzaro attack 1.71 + Cittadella defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.45

Cittadella attack 0.92 + Catanzaro defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Catanzaro scores more
46%
level
26%
Cittadella scores more
28%

Catanzaro at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Catanzaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Catanzaro vs Cittadella

Catanzaro beat Cittadella 1-0 in Serie B on February 14, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio Nicola Ceravolo in Catanzaro.