Catanduva 1–1 Marília: Result & Stats | League #605

Catanduva

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Marília

Pedro 64'

Mateus Müller 90+5'

3/16/2024

League #605 · 1st Phase - 14Estádio Municipal Sílvio Salles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Catanduva39%

×Draw32%

Marília29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CatanduvaExpected goals in this matchMarília

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

0.83

Catanduva

1.02

Marília

0.83

Catanduva creates 23% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 24 away

1.00

creates per match

1.00

0.67

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Catanduva

1.00

Marília

1.00

allows per match

Catanduva

0.67

Marília

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Catanduva+0.00on par

Marília+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Catanduva ↓

Marília →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Catanduva or draw

71%

Catanduva or Marília

68%

Draw or Marília

61%

Winning margin

Catanduva wins by 2+

15%

Marília wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Catanduva 1+ goals

64%

Catanduva 2+ goals

27%

Catanduva 3+ goals

8%

Marília 1+ goals

56%

Marília 2+ goals

20%

Marília 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Catanduva (draw refunded)

58%

Marília (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Catanduva at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Marília away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.04 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Catanduva attack 1.00 + Marília defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.02

Marília attack 1.00 + Catanduva defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Catanduva scores more

39%

level

32%

Marília scores more

29%

Catanduva at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Catanduva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

Renan← Isac

64'

Pedro

72'

João Guilherme← Gustavo Henrique

72'

Vinicius Michelon← Beto

72'

Lucas Santos← Luizão

72'

Ruster← Wallisson Bahia

79'

Aslen← Franklin

79'

João Marcos← Brito

82'

Giba← Pedro

82'

Gustavo Brinquedo← Caio Vieira

90+5'

Mateus Müller

Catanduva

Marília

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Ivan Flor

27'▲Renan←▼Isac

72'▲João Guilherme←▼Gustavo Henrique

72'▲Vinicius Michelon←▼Beto

82'▲Giba←▼Pedro

82'▲Gustavo Brinquedo←▼Caio Vieira

Catanduva substitutes

RenanGuilhermeMichelonGibaBrinquedoMandelaAntenorChuckViníciusIgorSerafiniIndio

Manager: Cléber Gaúcho

72'▲Lucas Santos←▼Luizão

72'▲Ruster←▼Wallisson Bahia

79'▲Aslen←▼Franklin

79'▲João Marcos←▼Brito

Marília substitutes

SantosRusterAslenMarcosDavidSantosStraubRapchanMineiro