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Castuera vs Villafranca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Castuera
Castuera
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Villafranca
Villafranca
2/9/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 21Estadio Manuel Ruiz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Castuera45%
×Draw25%
Villafranca31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Castuera
1.59
Villafranca
1.27

Castuera creates 25% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 81 away

creates per match

Castuera
1.91
Villafranca
1.16

allows per match

Castuera
1.38
Villafranca
1.27

finishing

Castuera+0.00on par
Villafranca+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castuera ↓

Villafranca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Castuera or draw
69%
Castuera or Villafranca
75%
Draw or Villafranca
55%

Winning margin

Castuera wins by 2+
23%
Villafranca wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Castuera 1+ goals
80%
Castuera 2+ goals
47%
Castuera 3+ goals
21%
Villafranca 1+ goals
72%
Villafranca 2+ goals
36%
Villafranca 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Castuera (draw refunded)
59%
Villafranca (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Castuera at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.38 · 34 matches

Villafranca away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.27 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Castuera attack 1.91 + Villafranca defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.59

Villafranca attack 1.16 + Castuera defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Castuera scores more
45%
level
25%
Villafranca scores more
31%

Castuera at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Castuera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Castuera vs Villafranca

Villafranca beat Castuera 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on February 9, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Manuel Ruiz in Castuera.