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Castuera vs Montehermoso — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Castuera
Castuera
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Montehermoso
Montehermoso
4/28/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 32Estadio Manuel Ruiz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Castuera61%
×Draw21%
Montehermoso17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Castuera
2.00
Montehermoso
0.96

Castuera creates 108% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 49 away

creates per match

Castuera
1.91
Montehermoso
0.55

allows per match

Castuera
1.38
Montehermoso
2.08

finishing

Castuera+0.00on par
Montehermoso+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castuera ↓

Montehermoso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Castuera or draw
83%
Castuera or Montehermoso
79%
Draw or Montehermoso
39%

Winning margin

Castuera wins by 2+
37%
Montehermoso wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Castuera 1+ goals
86%
Castuera 2+ goals
59%
Castuera 3+ goals
32%
Montehermoso 1+ goals
62%
Montehermoso 2+ goals
25%
Montehermoso 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Castuera (draw refunded)
78%
Montehermoso (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Castuera at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.38 · 34 matches

Montehermoso away — creates 0.55, concedes 2.08 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Castuera attack 1.91 + Montehermoso defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.00

Montehermoso attack 0.55 + Castuera defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Castuera scores more
61%
level
21%
Montehermoso scores more
17%

Castuera at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Castuera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Castuera vs Montehermoso

Castuera beat Montehermoso 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on April 28, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Manuel Ruiz in Castuera.