Castuera 0–3 Fuente Cantos: Result & Stats

Castuera

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Fuente Cantos

10/12/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 6Estadio Manuel Ruiz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Castuera52%

×Draw23%

Fuente Cantos24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CastueraExpected goals in this matchFuente Cantos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.14

Castuera

1.79

Fuente Cantos

1.14

Castuera creates 57% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 61 away

1.91

creates per match

0.89

1.38

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Castuera

1.91

Fuente Cantos

0.89

allows per match

Castuera

1.38

Fuente Cantos

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Castuera+0.00on par

Fuente Cantos+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castuera ↓

Fuente Cantos →

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Castuera or draw

76%

Castuera or Fuente Cantos

77%

Draw or Fuente Cantos

48%

Winning margin

Castuera wins by 2+

29%

Fuente Cantos wins by 2+

Team goals

Castuera 1+ goals

83%

Castuera 2+ goals

53%

Castuera 3+ goals

26%

Fuente Cantos 1+ goals

68%

Fuente Cantos 2+ goals

32%

Fuente Cantos 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Castuera (draw refunded)

68%

Fuente Cantos (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Castuera at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.38 · 34 matches

Fuente Cantos away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.67 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Castuera attack 1.91 + Fuente Cantos defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.79

Fuente Cantos attack 0.89 + Castuera defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Castuera scores more

52%

level

23%

Fuente Cantos scores more

24%

Castuera at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Castuera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff