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Castuera vs Diocesano — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Castuera
Castuera
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Diocesano
Diocesano
10/1/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 4Estadio Manuel Ruiz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Castuera43%
×Draw24%
Diocesano33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Castuera
1.65
Diocesano
1.40

Castuera creates 18% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 93 away

creates per match

Castuera
1.91
Diocesano
1.42

allows per match

Castuera
1.38
Diocesano
1.38

finishing

Castuera+0.00on par
Diocesano+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castuera ↓

Diocesano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Castuera or draw
67%
Castuera or Diocesano
76%
Draw or Diocesano
57%

Winning margin

Castuera wins by 2+
22%
Diocesano wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Castuera 1+ goals
81%
Castuera 2+ goals
49%
Castuera 3+ goals
23%
Diocesano 1+ goals
75%
Diocesano 2+ goals
41%
Diocesano 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Castuera (draw refunded)
57%
Diocesano (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Castuera at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.38 · 34 matches

Diocesano away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.38 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Castuera attack 1.91 + Diocesano defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.65

Diocesano attack 1.42 + Castuera defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Castuera scores more
43%
level
24%
Diocesano scores more
33%

Castuera at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Castuera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Castuera vs Diocesano

Castuera beat Diocesano 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on October 1, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Manuel Ruiz in Castuera.