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Castro vs Textil Escudo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Castro
Castro
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Textil Escudo
Textil Escudo
1/30/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 18Estadio Mioño

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Castro54%
×Draw24%
Textil Escudo21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Castro
1.67
Textil Escudo
0.95

Castro creates 76% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 56 away

creates per match

Castro
1.44
Textil Escudo
0.88

allows per match

Castro
1.01
Textil Escudo
1.91

finishing

Castro+0.00on par
Textil Escudo+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castro ↓

Textil Escudo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Castro or draw
79%
Castro or Textil Escudo
76%
Draw or Textil Escudo
46%

Winning margin

Castro wins by 2+
29%
Textil Escudo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Castro 1+ goals
81%
Castro 2+ goals
50%
Castro 3+ goals
23%
Textil Escudo 1+ goals
61%
Textil Escudo 2+ goals
25%
Textil Escudo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Castro (draw refunded)
72%
Textil Escudo (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Castro at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.01 · 96 matches

Textil Escudo away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.91 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Castro attack 1.44 + Textil Escudo defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.67

Textil Escudo attack 0.88 + Castro defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Castro scores more
54%
level
24%
Textil Escudo scores more
21%

Castro at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Castro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Castro vs Textil Escudo

Castro beat Textil Escudo 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on January 30, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Mioño in Castro Urdiales.