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Castro vs Rinconeda Polanco — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Castro
Castro
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rinconeda Polanco
Rinconeda Polanco
5/8/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 2nd Phase - 5Estadio Mioño

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Castro57%
×Draw24%
Rinconeda Polanco19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Castro
1.69
Rinconeda Polanco
0.87

Castro creates 94% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 15 away

creates per match

Castro
1.44
Rinconeda Polanco
0.73

allows per match

Castro
1.01
Rinconeda Polanco
1.93

finishing

Castro+0.00on par
Rinconeda Polanco+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castro ↓

Rinconeda Polanco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Castro or draw
81%
Castro or Rinconeda Polanco
76%
Draw or Rinconeda Polanco
43%

Winning margin

Castro wins by 2+
31%
Rinconeda Polanco wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Castro 1+ goals
82%
Castro 2+ goals
50%
Castro 3+ goals
24%
Rinconeda Polanco 1+ goals
58%
Rinconeda Polanco 2+ goals
22%
Rinconeda Polanco 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Castro (draw refunded)
75%
Rinconeda Polanco (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Castro at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.01 · 96 matches

Rinconeda Polanco away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Castro attack 1.44 + Rinconeda Polanco defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.69

Rinconeda Polanco attack 0.73 + Castro defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Castro scores more
57%
level
24%
Rinconeda Polanco scores more
19%

Castro at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Castro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Castro vs Rinconeda Polanco

Castro and Rinconeda Polanco drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on May 8, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Mioño in Castro Urdiales.