Castro 1–1 Ribamontán al Mar: Result & Stats

Castro

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Ribamontán al Mar

4/10/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 2nd Phase - 1Campo Riomar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Castro55%

×Draw24%

Ribamontán al Mar21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CastroExpected goals in this matchRibamontán al Mar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

0.98

Castro

1.72

Ribamontán al Mar

0.98

Castro creates 76% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 28 away

1.44

creates per match

0.96

1.01

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Castro

1.44

Ribamontán al Mar

0.96

allows per match

Castro

1.01

Ribamontán al Mar

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Castro+0.00on par

Ribamontán al Mar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castro ↓

Ribamontán al Mar →

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Castro or draw

79%

Castro or Ribamontán al Mar

76%

Draw or Ribamontán al Mar

45%

Winning margin

Castro wins by 2+

30%

Ribamontán al Mar wins by 2+

Team goals

Castro 1+ goals

82%

Castro 2+ goals

51%

Castro 3+ goals

25%

Ribamontán al Mar 1+ goals

62%

Ribamontán al Mar 2+ goals

26%

Ribamontán al Mar 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Castro (draw refunded)

72%

Ribamontán al Mar (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Castro at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.01 · 96 matches

Ribamontán al Mar away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.00 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Castro attack 1.44 + Ribamontán al Mar defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.72

Ribamontán al Mar attack 0.96 + Castro defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

Castro scores more

55%

level

24%

Ribamontán al Mar scores more

21%

Castro at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Castro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff