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Castro vs Monte — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Castro
Castro
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Monte
Monte
3/2/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 24Campo Riomar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Castro52%
×Draw26%
Monte22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Castro
1.54
Monte
0.89

Castro creates 73% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 17 away

creates per match

Castro
1.44
Monte
0.76

allows per match

Castro
1.01
Monte
1.65

finishing

Castro+0.00on par
Monte+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castro ↓

Monte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Castro or draw
78%
Castro or Monte
74%
Draw or Monte
48%

Winning margin

Castro wins by 2+
27%
Monte wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Castro 1+ goals
79%
Castro 2+ goals
45%
Castro 3+ goals
20%
Monte 1+ goals
59%
Monte 2+ goals
22%
Monte 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Castro (draw refunded)
71%
Monte (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Castro at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.01 · 96 matches

Monte away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Castro attack 1.44 + Monte defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.54

Monte attack 0.76 + Castro defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Castro scores more
52%
level
26%
Monte scores more
22%

Castro at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Castro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Castro 2–0 Monte

Castro beat Monte 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on March 2, 2025.

The match was played at Campo Riomar in Castro Urdiales.