Castro 0–0 Guarnizo: Result & Stats

Castro

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Guarnizo

10/23/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 7Estadio Mioño

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Castro41%

×Draw27%

Guarnizo32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CastroExpected goals in this matchGuarnizo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.12

Castro

1.32

Guarnizo

1.12

Castro creates 18% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 111 away

1.44

creates per match

1.23

1.01

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Castro

1.44

Guarnizo

1.23

allows per match

Castro

1.01

Guarnizo

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Castro+0.00on par

Guarnizo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castro ↓

Guarnizo →

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Castro or draw

68%

Castro or Guarnizo

73%

Draw or Guarnizo

59%

Winning margin

Castro wins by 2+

19%

Guarnizo wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Castro 1+ goals

73%

Castro 2+ goals

38%

Castro 3+ goals

15%

Guarnizo 1+ goals

67%

Guarnizo 2+ goals

31%

Guarnizo 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Castro (draw refunded)

57%

Guarnizo (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Castro at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.01 · 96 matches

Guarnizo away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.20 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Castro attack 1.44 + Guarnizo defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.32

Guarnizo attack 1.23 + Castro defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Castro scores more

41%

level

27%

Guarnizo scores more

32%

Castro at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Castro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff